In a duel against two rival magic schools, you have been chosen as the champion to represent your wizard house. Your opponents are from Newt-iz school and Leib-ton school respectively.
Opponent number 1 is from Newt-niz school. He is a sorcerer who can turn people into fishes using his wand with 70% effectiveness.
Opponent number 2 is from Leib-ton school. She is a powerful enchantress who can turn people into statues using her wand with 90% effectiveness.
The rules are:
The duel will start with you then the sorcerer and then the enchantress. After that, the casting will continue in that order until one of you is left.
Anyone who casts out of order gets a penalty.
To avoid draws, if everyone will stand at the end of round one, everyone will turn into cats.
You can’t target two opponents at a time.
You are chosen to cast the first spell. You are given 3 types of wands:
The Bannekar- It binds the target with vines. It is 60% effective.
The Gaussian- Turns target into a tree. It is 80% effective.
Noether 9000- It banishes the target on top of a mountain. It is 100% effective.
Which wand will you pick?
Let’s walk through the possibilities.
You pick the obvious, the most powerful wand that is Noether 9000 with 100% effectiveness. Once you pick the wand you will become the most powerful one which will make you the target of the other two magicians. So, you will take out the enchantress first but after that, you have a 70% chance of turning into a fish.
You pick the Gaussian with 80% effectiveness, which means the target will be the enchantress. If you successfully take her out there’s a chance you will be turned into fish and if you take out the sorcerer, you will most certainly become a statue. So what can you do?
You can miss the shot on purpose!
This will make the sorcerer attack the enchantress and you will have an 80% chance of winning.
But what if the wizard missed his shot too and since you are the powerful target the enchantress takes you out?
This narrows it down to your best option that is the Bannekar with 60% effectiveness.
If you will miss the shot using the Bannekar that would force the sorcerer to take out the powerful contender that is the enchantress, which gives you a 60% chance of winning.
If the sorcerer fails then the enchantress will turn the next powerful contender that is the wizard into a statue, which will give you again a 60% chance of winning.
Even if the possibility is around 60% this is your best shot.
There’s still a 3% chance of everyone turning into cats. Good luck!